A system of low atmospheric pressure brewing in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is all but certain to become a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours — but neither Houston nor any part of the Texas Gulf Coast is expected to be landfall target for any developing storm.

A tropical disturbance is actively strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico as it heads toward the Big Bend and Florida Panhandle region of the coast.

Here's how other meteorological factors, like atmospheric pressure and cold fronts will help steer tropical activity away from the Texas Gulf Coast.